My first time here, bad english... Please be patient and/or indulgent :)))
My question:
In the Caribbean Stud Poker table, for the player winning with a royal flush, I can see there are 16759740 combinations. As the total number of combinations is 19933230517200, it means the probability is 8.40794E-07.
But if I try to calculate by my own, I get a different result. Could you help me to find my mistake please ?
The odds of player royal are 4 in 2,598,960, which is 1 in 649,740 and the probability is 1.53908E-06
The odds of dealer royal is reduced to 3 in 1,533,939, or 1 in 511,313.
The odds of coincidental dealer royal is 1 in 332,220,508,620 (The product of the two prior values) and the probability of this happening (for a push hand) is 3.01E-12 (very weak)
So the probability for player winning with royal flush should be near 4/ 2,598,960 because the coincidence is weak: 1.53908E-06 - 3.01E-12 = 1.53907E-06 far from the expected 8.40794E-07
Where am I missing something ?
Thanks
Caribbean Stud Poker is a casino table game that closely resembles Five-Card Stud Poker. This game was developed in the 1980’s and was intended to try to entice poker players to play more table games at casinos. David Sklansky has claimed that he is the creator of Caribbean Stud.
Hello everybody,
My first time here, bad english... Please be patient and/or indulgent :)))
My question:
In the Caribbean Stud Poker table, for the player winning with a royal flush, I can see there are 16759740 combinations. As the total number of combinations is 19933230517200, it means the probability is 8.40794E-07.
But if I try to calculate by my own, I get a different result. Could you help me to find my mistake please ?
The odds of player royal are 4 in 2,598,960, which is 1 in 649,740 and the probability is 1.53908E-06
The odds of dealer royal is reduced to 3 in 1,533,939, or 1 in 511,313.
The odds of coincidental dealer royal is 1 in 332,220,508,620 (The product of the two prior values) and the probability of this happening (for a push hand) is 3.01E-12 (very weak)
So the probability for player winning with royal flush should be near 4/ 2,598,960 because the coincidence is weak: 1.53908E-06 - 3.01E-12 = 1.53907E-06 far from the expected 8.40794E-07
Where am I missing something ?
Thanks
- In Caribbean Stud Poker the optimal strategy player will raise 52.23% of the time, for an average total wager of 2.045 units. For comparing one game against another I prefer to use the element of risk, which is the expected loss to the average wager, which in this case would be 5.224%/2.045 = 2.555%.
- Caribbean Stud Poker Payouts, Odds and Rules Caribbean Stud poker is a casino version of the traditional 5 card draw poker. The main difference between Caribbean stud and the traditional game is you play against the house not other players.
As a side note I once got a royal which would have paid 20,000€ if dealer qualified. He didn't :(
I assume the phrase 'Player wins with royal flush' means getting the full 100x payout for the royal and not just 1 ante when dealer doesn't qualify.
Of course, that's the point !
Ok, thank you very much Jufo...
Hope your next royal will pay ! :)
Of course, that's the point !
Ok, thank you very much Jufo...
Hope your next royal will pay ! :)
If you want to know the exact probability of dealer qualifying/winning/losing against any player hand, you can use the calculator below where you put player's cards and dealers first card:
http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/casino-games/caribbean-stud-poker/strategy-calculator.html
For example if player has Hearts royal Ah Kh Qh Jh Th and Dealer has 5 of clubs (5c) the calc says exactly 45.0832% probability for dealer not qualifying.
If you want to know the exact probability of dealer qualifying/winning/losing against any player hand, you can use the calculator below :
http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/casino-games/caribbean-stud-poker/strategy-calculator.html
Ooooooooooh, I didn't know .
Thanks a lot again !!
I hope your next two royals will pay, lol
Ooooooooooh, I didn't know .
Thanks a lot again !!
I hope your next two royals will pay, lol
Yeah me too, but you don't get them every day lol. Actually I got my royal in Oasis Poker where you can replace one of your cards by paying one ante. Other than the possibility to replace one card, the rules and payouts are exactly the same as in Caribbean Stud.
Yeah me too, but you don't get them every day lol. Actually I got my royal in Oasis Poker where you can replace one of your cards by paying one ante.
Do you know if any calculator for such a game exists (with possibility of drawing one card) ?
It would be very nice !
Do you know if any calculator for such a game exists (with possibility of drawing one card) ?
It would be very nice !
No, I haven't seen any calculator for that game. But the strategy when you should replace one card is given here (it's not completely precise):
http://wizardofodds.com/oasispoker
After the card switch decision you would simply follow the same strategy as in Caribbean Stud.
If you scroll down the above link it also shows you the probability to get each hand (royal etc.). As you see, getting a Royal in Oasis is much easier because you can switch one card to get it.
But the strategy when you should replace one card is given here (it's not completely precise):
http://wizardofodds.com/oasispoker
What impressive the Wizard of odds site is !
Thanks to him.
What impressive the Wizard of odds site is !
Thanks to him.
That's true. If you really wanted to play with perfect strategy with best odds, you should also add the following rules to the switching strategy:
Caribbean Stud Poker Odds Wild Card
Switch one player card also with:
-Four to a flush with a 22 to 66 pair when the dealer's upcard is a greater rank than the pair
-Four to an outside straight with a 22 to 33 pair when the dealer's upcard is a greater rank than all cards in the straight
-Four to an inside straight without pair when the high card of the straight is 10 or greater, and the dealer's upcard is lesser rank than all cards in the straight
These rules were listed at another site.
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Caribbean Stud is a five card stud poker game played on a blackjack type table with a standard 52 card deck. The cards are normally dealt from a multi-deck 'shoe' or by an automatic shuffling machine that deals in groups of five card hands. Players try to beat the dealer with the best poker hand.
Each seat at the Caribbean Stud table has a player's layout and chip slot like the drawing at the right. The slot fixture has small lights that light up when a chip that has been placed in the slot is allowed to fall through for collection by the dealer. Always watch the lights to make sure your jackpot bet is indicated, before the hand is dealt. Sometimes they don't work properly and that could cost you a lot of money.
Caribbean Stud Poker Rules and How to Play Procedure
Before any cards are dealt, you place a bet in the 'ante' box in your table layout. This ante bet can be any amount within the posted table limits.
With each hand you may also play for the optional progressive jackpot. If you want to do this, you place a $1.00 chip in the chip slot in front of you. When all the players that want to play for the jackpot have their bets down, the dealer presses a button allowing all the $1.00 chips to drop through the slots for collection. The lights on your slot fixture are activated by the chip drop and stay illuminated until the hand is over to show that you made the jackpot bet.
The dealer then gives five cards, face down, to all the players and gives himself four down and one up. You then look at your cards and decide to either play or fold. If you choose to fold, you lose your ante bet. If you choose to play, you place double the amount of your ante in the 'bet' box. This is your 'call' bet.
| Poker Hand | Full Pay Call Bonus Table | Full Pay Jackpot Table |
|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 100 to 1 | 100% Total Jackpot |
| Straight Flush | 50 to 1 | 10% Total Jackpot |
| 4 of a Kind | 20 to 1 | $500 |
| Full House | 7 to 1 | $100 |
| Flush | 5 to 1 | $50 |
| Straight | 4 to 1 | - |
| Three of a Kind | 3 to 1 | - |
| 2 Pair | 2 to 1 | - |
| Pair or less | 1 to 1 | - |
If the player made the $1.00 jackpot bet and has a flush or higher, he or she receives payment for the hand, in accordance with the jackpot payout schedule. When players are eligible for jackpot payouts they must announce that they have a jackpot hand to the dealer, as soon as they see it and before the hand is over. This is to protect your hand from the dealer accidentally scooping it up and mixing it in with the dead cards. Protect this hand and never take it off the table or out of overhead camera sight. If you do, the casino has the right to enforce the game rules and not pay you for it. The progressive jackpot bet is a separate side game. The player wins whether he or she beats the dealer or not.
Caribbean Stud Poker Strategy and Tips
The percentage crunching experts will advise you not to play the jackpot game because the house advantage is too high. But I'll bet that even they will slip a coin in the jackpot slot when they think nobody is looking. Without the jackpot bet feature, the game of Caribbean Stud would soon be history. Just about everyone plays for the big progressive jackpot payouts.
The Progressive Jackpot
Actually the experts are sort of right when they complain about the jackpot odds, especially when the player is getting the common 50/75/100 payout and the progressive starts out at $5,000. But when you factor in a full pay schedule with some progressives reaching over $600,000 the picture starts to look pretty good for the player. With an average or near to average run of cards, you probably won't win at Caribbean Stud. However, if you are playing the progressive when the poker gods bless you with some unusually powerful hands or an unusually good run you can win a lot!
Optimal Caribbean Stud Poker Strategy
Always call bet when you have:
- A-K-J x x or higher
- A-K and the dealer's up-card denomination (for example you hold A-K-2-9-5 and the dealer's up card is a 5)
So to give you the best shot at some nice winnings follow these tips: look for full pay games, large progressive jackpots and always play the optimal strategy.